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CANADA: CBC-Foreign Min Joly Will Not Run For LPC Leadership: Source

CANADA
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CBC reports that according to an unnamed source, Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly will not seek the leadership of the centre-left Liberal Party of Canada (LPC). The article claims Joly is set to make an announcement later today. If she confirms her non-participation she will be the second senior cabinet member to do so this week after Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc claimed he would not run and instead was focused on dealing with the impact of US tariffs. 

  • CBC: "A number of cabinet insiders — including Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne, Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson and Employment Minister Steven MacKinnon — have said they are considering running for the top job, but said they want to see the rules first. Former central banker Mark Carney has also said he's interested. Former finance minister Chrystia Freeland, former B.C. premier Christy Clark and House Leader Karina Gould are said to be gathering supporters, too."
  • The latest opinion polling from Abacus Data shows that among LPC supporters Freeland leads with 26% support to Carney's 20% (25% are unsure).
  • Data from Polymarket shows Carney as the bettors favourite, with a 46% implied probability of becoming leader compared to 33% for Freeland and 11.6% for Champagne. The market with betting market Kalshi, asking who will be the next PM, has Freeland as the favourite with a 42% implied probability to Carney's 38%. 

Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Next LPC Leader, %

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CBC reports that according to an unnamed source, Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly will not seek the leadership of the centre-left Liberal Party of Canada (LPC). The article claims Joly is set to make an announcement later today. If she confirms her non-participation she will be the second senior cabinet member to do so this week after Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc claimed he would not run and instead was focused on dealing with the impact of US tariffs. 

  • CBC: "A number of cabinet insiders — including Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne, Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson and Employment Minister Steven MacKinnon — have said they are considering running for the top job, but said they want to see the rules first. Former central banker Mark Carney has also said he's interested. Former finance minister Chrystia Freeland, former B.C. premier Christy Clark and House Leader Karina Gould are said to be gathering supporters, too."
  • The latest opinion polling from Abacus Data shows that among LPC supporters Freeland leads with 26% support to Carney's 20% (25% are unsure).
  • Data from Polymarket shows Carney as the bettors favourite, with a 46% implied probability of becoming leader compared to 33% for Freeland and 11.6% for Champagne. The market with betting market Kalshi, asking who will be the next PM, has Freeland as the favourite with a 42% implied probability to Carney's 38%. 

Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Next LPC Leader, %

Keep reading...Show less