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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMANY
The centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is heading for losses in the most recent poll ahead of the 6 June regional election in the central-eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt.
- Latest poll from INSA: AfD: 26% (+2), CDU: 25% (-1), Die Linke: 13% (=), Greens: 11% (-1), SPD: 10% (=), FDP: 8% (+2). Fieldwork: 17-23 May. Chgs w/ 20-27 Apr. 1,000 respondents.
Chart 1. Saxony-Anhalt Opinion Polling in 2021, %
Source: INSA, Infratest dimap, MNI
- Based on the most recent opinion polling, the incumbent CDU-SPD-Green coalition (also known as a 'Kenya coalition' in German politics) in the state would be one seat short of a majority, requiring either the formation of a 4-party gov't involving the CDU, SPD, Greens, and FDP or the CDU forming an alliance with the right-wing nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Chart 2. Hypothetical Saxony-Anhalt Landtag Based On Latest Poll, Seats
Source: dawum.de, MNI. Changes from current seats shown in brackets. Seat changes not equal due to changes in overhang seats.
- Should the CDU fall behind the AfD in the state it would serve as a notable rebuke to CDU federal chancellor candidate Armin Laschet at just the wrong time. Federal-level opinion polls have just begun to show the CDU recovering support after losing much following Laschet's nomination, with support for the environmentalist Greens rising above that of the CDU for a time.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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