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CDU Retains Lead In Polls Ahead Of Crucial Leadership Election

GERMANY

Latest opinion poll shows the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union of Chancellor Angela Merkel maintaining its position as by a distance the most popular political force in Germany. With the election of a new CDU leader taking place tomorrow, there will be notable interest in seeing whether the polling numbers hold up for the winning candidate.

  • Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll: CDU/CSU: 37% (=), Greens: 20% (=), Social Democrats: 15% (-1), Alternative for Germany: 10% (=). The Left: 8% (=), Free Democrats: 5% (=). +/- vs. 7-9 Dec. Fieldwork: 12-14 Jan. Sample size: 1,262.
  • Based on the poll above, it is unlikely that the CDU/CSU would be able to form a gov't solely with the centre-right pro-business Free Democrats (the preferred coalition of CDU leadership frontrunner Friedrich Merz). Instead the most likely post-election governing coalition remains between the CDU/CSU and the centre-left Greens, an option believed to be favoured by the other two CDU leadership candidates, centrists Armin Laschet and Norbert Rottgen.
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