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CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: USDRUB Resumes Its Climb

EMERGING MARKETS
  • EURHUF is unchanged and remains above 352.39, Feb 10 low. The outlook is bearish and attention is on 350.88, the Jan 13 low. This is a key support where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 348.55, the Sep 16, 2021 low. The 50-day EMA at 358.62 represents a key resistance area. A clear breach of it would signal a possible reversal.
  • EURPLN has tested - but not meaningfully broken - defined support at 4.4828, the Feb 10 low - last week’s low print was 4.4826. Trend conditions remain bearish and the cross remains below resistance at 4.6013, Jan 31 low. A clear break of 4.4828/26 would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 4.4503, the Jun 6 2021 low and 4.4360, the Jun 7 low from last year.
  • USDZAR has breached the Feb 10 low of 14.9815 plus a trendline support drawn from the Jun 7, 2021 low. However, price has yet to extend lower and reinforce the bearish significance of the break. An extension lower would strengthen a bearish case and open 14.8637, the Nov 9 low. A key short-term resistance to watch has been defined at 15.7559, the Jan 31 high.
  • USDTRY is still trading sideways and remains in a tight range around the 20-day EMA. The broader outlook is bullish and price continues to trade above the Dec 23 low of 10.2512 that also represents the key short-term support. The 50-day EMA at 13.1601 represents initial support. A resumption of gains would open 14.3729, the Dec 11 high. A breach of this level would expose 15.2645, 61.8% of the Dec 20- 23 sell-off.
  • USDRUB is firmer today. Recent activity has defined a key support at 74.2611, Feb 10 low. The set-up between the 20- and 50-day EMAs continues to suggest the broader uptrend remains intact. The resumption of gains signals scope for 80.4155, Jan 26 high. A break below 74.2611 would instead expose 73.0926, the Dec 27 low.
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