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CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: USDTRY Extends This Week’s Sharp Reversal

EMERGING MARKETS
  • The EURHUF outlook remains bullish and the cross is firmer today. The focus is on 371.99, Nov 23 high where a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 374.50, 1.00 projection of the Nov 4 - 23 - Dec 2 price swing. Key support is 360.99, low Dec 2 and marks the bear trigger. Initial support is at 363.97, Dec 9 low.
  • EURPLN continues to consolidate. The cross has recently recovered from the Dec 8 low and is holding onto recent gains. A break of resistance at 4.6462, Dec 14 high would improve short-term conditions and signal scope for a stronger bounce towards 4.6798, the 61..8% retracement of the Nov 23 - Dec 8 sell-off. Key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 4.5798, the Dec 8 low.
  • USDZAR remains in an uptrend and recent weakness is considered corrective. The bull trigger is unchanged at 16.3668, the Nov 26 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the trend and open 16.3815, 50.0% of the downleg between Mar 2020 - Jun 2021. Key short-term support is at 15.6701, the Dec 8 low and 15.5713, the 50-day EMA.
  • USDTRY on Monday reversed December's gains in a single session. The pair has continued to weaken and is lower once again today. This week’s sell-off has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and sights are now set on the 10.00 handle. Price action is likely to remain volatile, resistance is seen at 14.3729, the Dec 21 high.
  • USDRUB remains vulnerable and has attempted to break lower today. This has resulted in a test of the 50-day EMA at 73.2651. This EMA represents an important support and a clear break would suggest scope for a deeper pullback towards 72.5701, 50.0% of the Oct - Nov rally. On the upside, clearance of 74.5329, Dec 7 high, would signal a reversal and expose the bull trigger at 75.9190, Nov 26 high.
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