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CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: USDTRY Still Testing The Key 16.4488 Fibonacci Retracement

EMERGING MARKETS
  • The short-term outlook in EURHUF remains bullish and recent gains have reinforced the current uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull mode and attention is on 399.64, Mar 7 high and the next key resistance. Firm support is seen at 380.76, May 24 low. A break of this level would be seen as a bearish development.
  • EURPLN remains in bear mode and the cross is trading closer to its recent low. Price is through the 4.60 handle - a clear breach of this level and a continuation lower signals scope for a deeper pullback. Scope is seen for weakness towards the 4.50 handle and support at 4.4826, the Feb 16 low. Key resistance has been defined at 4.6464, Apr 26 high. Initial resistance is at 4.6490, the 50-day EMA.
  • The current USDZAR bear cycle remains in play. The pair has traded below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and attention is on key support at 15.4112, May 4 low. The current retracement is still considered corrective though. A reversal higher would refocus attention on 16.3237, May 16 high and the bull trigger. Note however that a break of 15.4412 would expose 15.1364, 61.8% of the Mar 31 - May 16 bull leg.
  • USDTRY continues to trade at its recent highs. The pair maintains a bullish tone following recent gains and the break of the 16.00 level. Attention is on 16.4488 (76.4% of the Dec 20 - 23 sell-off) that has been tested. A clear break of this level would open the 17.00 handle. Initial firm support lies at 15.8021, the 20-day EMA.
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