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CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: USDZAR Recovery Means Trendline Support Stays Intact

EMERGING MARKETS
  • EURHUF gains stalled this week just ahead of the 50-day EMA on Monday - the EMA intersects at 361.75 today. This represents a key short-term resistance and a clear break, if seen, would signal scope for a stronger rally towards 363.78, 61.8% of the Dec 24 - Jan 13 downleg. Moving average studies continue to suggest the broader trend remains bearish though and that recent gains are corrective. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 350.88, the Jan 13 low.
  • EURPLN traded lower yesterday but is still holding onto the bulk of its recent gains following the recovery from 4.5088 , Jan 20 low. The recent move higher has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and a print above the 50-day EMA, currently at 458.15. A clear breach of this 50-day average would signal scope for a stronger rally and open the 4.60 handle and 4.6180 further out, 23.6% retracement of the downleg between Nov 23 - Jan 20. Gains are considered corrective though and a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the 4.5088 bear trigger.
  • USDZAR is recovering from the recent low of 15.0669, Jan 21 low. The move higher means trendline support at 15.0084 remains intact - the trendline is drawn from the Jun 7, 2021 low. This level represents a key support where a break would strengthen a bearish case and open 14.8637, the Nov 9 low. The pair is through the 50-day EMA today, improving the outlook for bulls and sights are on the 16.00 handle next.
  • USDTRY is unchanged and is still trading sideways in a very tight range at the 20-day EMA. The outlook is bullish and price continues to trade above the Dec 23 low of 10.2512 that also represents the key short-term support. A resumption of gains would open 14.3729, the Dec 11 high. A breach of this level would expose 15.2645, 61.8% of the Dec 20- 23 sell-off.
  • USDRUB faced resistance yesterday. The sharp sell-off suggests a short-term top has been defined at 80.4155, the Jan 26 high. In pattern terms, yesterday’s candle formation is a bearish engulfing reversal. A deeper pullback would open 76.6580, the 20-day EMA and 75.1901, the 50-day EMA. Dips are considered corrective though. The bull trigger is at 81.4155.
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