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Celanese 4Q: Deleveraging in a Difficult Environment

BASIC INDUSTRIES
  • Spreads are 1-2 wider today. We see room for downside risk after rallying to new tights YTD. Equity set to open lower with EPS guidance 20%+ below consensus for 1Q24.
  • CE reported overnight, missed slightly on revenue and EBITDA by -1 to -2%.
  • Leverage down to 5.1x from 7.1x (post M&A peak) YoY, aided by a large WC release. Remains well above L/T average of 2-3x.
  • Management commented on weak demand and pricing pressure. Expecting lower input costs and interest expense in 2024, but not forecasting top line growth at this stage.
  • We see heightened risk to their ability to continue deleveraging to 3x target in difficult conditions, which rating agencies will be focusing on. One to keep an eye on.
  • Earnings call 10AM EST https://event.choruscall.com/mediaframe/webcast.html?webcastid=dA9Btjro

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