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Chair Powell On The Unemployment Rate And Recession Risk

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  • Q: SEP sees unemployment rate rising to 4.5% this year, how do you anticipate preventing this from snowballing?
  • A: That's just an estimate of what will happen as demand slows and as labor market conditions soften. It's a highly uncertain estimate. The costs of failing to bring inflation down to 2% are high.
    • Recessions tend to be non-linear, we don't know whether that'll happen this time or how significant that will be.
  • Sounding a little from that last answer that Powell is not pushing back too much on the suggestion there will be a recession...
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  • Q: SEP sees unemployment rate rising to 4.5% this year, how do you anticipate preventing this from snowballing?
  • A: That's just an estimate of what will happen as demand slows and as labor market conditions soften. It's a highly uncertain estimate. The costs of failing to bring inflation down to 2% are high.
    • Recessions tend to be non-linear, we don't know whether that'll happen this time or how significant that will be.
  • Sounding a little from that last answer that Powell is not pushing back too much on the suggestion there will be a recession...