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Cheapening With Broad Risk-On Sentiment

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have cheapened through European hours with a re-firming in S&P E-minis and oil broadly holding to gains made late last week.
  • There are few obvious drivers although it does follow a shift in CFTC positioning with hedge funds last week flipping to net short 10-year note futures for the first time since Jun’21, along with some sellside analysts shifting to more aggressive ECB rate forecasts.
  • 2YY +2.5bps at 2.677%, +1.7bps 2.951%, 10YY +1.8bps at 2.952% and 30YY +2.0bps at 3.106%.
  • TYU2 is unchanged on the day at 118-17+, towards the low end of Friday’s range amidst below average volumes. Having moved further away from the 50-day EMA of 120-07+ last week, the corrective cycle appears over as it next eyes a key short-term support at 118-01+ (May 18 low).
  • No data of note today and FOMC in media blackout ahead of the Jun 14-15 meeting.
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $45B 13W, $42B 26W Bill auctions – 1130ET

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