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Cheaper, Narrow Range, Post-Jobs Sell-Off Continued

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM -7.0 & XM -8.5) are cheaper after trading in a relatively narrow range in the Sydney session. Today, there have been no local data releases for market participants to analyse, following yesterday's surprisingly strong employment data. As a result, local investors have likely been closely monitoring headlines and observing movements in US tsy yields.

  • Tsys are holding richer in the Asian session today, however, they have ticked away from session highs. Ranges remain narrow with few follow-on moves.
  • Cash ACGBs are 6-8bp cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential unchanged at +18bp.
  • Swap rates are 5-8bp higher with the 3s10s curve flatter.
  • The bills strip bear steepens with pricing flat to -6.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-5bp firmer across meetings. A 62% chance of a 25bp hike is now priced for August.
  • Next week the local calendar sees Judo Bank PMI data on Monday ahead of Q2 CPI on Wednesday. Bloomberg consensus expects headline CPI to print +1.0% q/q (5.5% y/y) versus +1.4% q/q (5.6% y/y) in Q1. Trimmed Mean CPI is forecast to print +1.1% q/q (6.0% y/y) from +1.2% (6.6% y/y).
  • The AOFM plans to sell A$700mn of the 4.50% 21 April 2033 bond on Wednesday.
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