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Cheaper Pharmaceuticals, Lower Energy Prices Supported Monthly CPI Decline

POLAND

Statistics Poland confirmed September CPI inflation at +8.2% Y/Y and -0.4% M/M, in line with flash readings. It has been suggested that pre-election measures rolled out by the government could have contributed the suppression of price pressures.

  • ING write that the decline in headline inflation was driven by food, petrol and much lower core inflation (around +8.5% Y/Y). They point to the monthly declines in the prices of medicines, transport, RTV items and holiday packages.
  • mBank note that electricity prices fell 2.3% M/M (due to the increase in the cap on the use of electricity at a lowered tariff) while the prices of pharmaceuticals fell 5.3% M/M (free prescriptions for people aged <18 and >65).
  • Pekao believe that the biggest surprise was provided by core inflation, which likely eased to +8.4% Y/Y. In addition, core prices fell (0.1%) M/M for the first time in three years. They note that the statistics bureau pointed to the impact of free prescriptions for selected age groups.
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