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FED: Chicago's Goolsbee Continues To See Rates Heading A "Fair Bit Lower"

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Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee (2025 FOMC voter) won't pre-commit on his view of the December rate decision ("everything's always on the table") in a Q&A that's still ongoing, as he says he first wants to see upcoming data and hear the rest of the Committee's deliberations.

  • That being said, he's probably the biggest dove on the FOMC and it's a pretty good bet he will be siding with a rate cut, mentioning that current rates are far above the (September SEP) 2025 end-year rate median projection of 3.4%.
  • He says that over the next year, if conditions evolve how he expects, rates are going to be a "fair bit lower" than they are today. That repeats language he's used previously.
  • In turn, Fed cut pricing is little changed, with futures eyeing an 88% implied probability of a December 25bp cut, vs under 70% prior to the November Employment Report.
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Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee (2025 FOMC voter) won't pre-commit on his view of the December rate decision ("everything's always on the table") in a Q&A that's still ongoing, as he says he first wants to see upcoming data and hear the rest of the Committee's deliberations.

  • That being said, he's probably the biggest dove on the FOMC and it's a pretty good bet he will be siding with a rate cut, mentioning that current rates are far above the (September SEP) 2025 end-year rate median projection of 3.4%.
  • He says that over the next year, if conditions evolve how he expects, rates are going to be a "fair bit lower" than they are today. That repeats language he's used previously.
  • In turn, Fed cut pricing is little changed, with futures eyeing an 88% implied probability of a December 25bp cut, vs under 70% prior to the November Employment Report.