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Chile & Colombian Pesos Sharply Higher, Relief Rally Across Camara Curve

LATAM
  • Chile’s significantly lower-than-expected CPI data prompted an impressive reaction for Camara swap rates on Tuesday with one and two-year tenors dropping as much as 84bps. Corresponding strength for the Chilean Peso saw USDCLP (-1.4%) briefly brief the 900 mark, turning the focus to 871.94, the Sep 9 low.
  • Both the Chilean and Colombia peso continue to benefit from the softer greenback, with the latter rising over 3%, playing catch up following Monday’s market closure.
  • Scotiabank believe the Chilean data will have significant monetary policy implication and now expect an aggressive 100–200bps cut no later than January 2023 meeting.
    • They expect the market to align with their view very quickly with significant falls in nominal rates.
    • The recent disinflationary surprise of the CPI for October is not explained by specific products, but by a basket of prices that “suddenly” disappears. Emblematic products have fallen due to weak demand, high inventories and the null multilateral depreciation of the CLP in recent months.
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