China 2022 Growth May Reach 5-5.5%: Economist

There is “little doubt” that China’s economy can grow above 5% in 2022 and gradually return to normal, in line with political targets, Lian Ping, the former chief economist of Bank of Communications and a sometime advisor to the government, wrote on Yicai.com. Housing investments may continue to weigh on the economy, slowing to 4.2% y/y growth as the government maintains its tightening efforts, while spending may gradually recover to the pre-pandemic level given China’s successful anti-pandemic measures and policies stimulating public spending, Lian said. Chinese exports may regain double-digit growth in H2 of 2022 as global logistics improve, said Lian. CPI may average 2.4% next year while slowing commodity prices may push PPI to negative by H2, said Lian.