-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Global Macro Weekly -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI Commodity Weekly: Oil Markets Assess Trump Impact
MNI Gas Weekly: Winter Weather Takes the Driver's Seat
China April Trade Out Tomorrow, Export Growth Expected To Moderate
Tomorrow Apr trade figures are due. The market looks for export growth in y/y terms at 8.0% (forecast range is -5.0% to 13.8%), versus 14.8% prior. Imports are expected to be -0.2% y/y, (forecast range is -3.0% to 7.0%), versus -1.4% prior. The trade surplus is expected to narrow to $71.25bn from $88.19bn in Mar.
- Both export and import trends will be of interest. The last official manufacturing PMI print for Apri showed export orders loss a decent amount of momentum to 47.6 from 50.4 in Mar. Still, this was comfortably above 2022 Mar levels, so it isn't suggesting a sharp slowing in the y/y pace for exports.
- Other NEA economies have continued to display fairly soft growth, which makes the recent export outcome for China (in Mar) look like somewhat of an outlier (see the chart below). So, some slowing might be expected given global headwinds.
Fig 1: China Exports Outperforming Other NEA Economies
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
- The import side will be watched for external growth, particularly in light of the recent correction lower in commodities across the metals and energy space.
- China is seen as a key driver of demand in 2023 and the market will be looking for positive signs around the commodity demand backdrop.
- The trade surplus is expected to gradually narrow, as domestic demand recovers in 2023 and export growth moderates. At this stage though, it isn't expected to be a headwind for CNH.
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.