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CHINA DATA: Commodity Imports Weaker In October, Trends Mixed in Y/Y Terms

CHINA DATA
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China headline imports were down -2.3% y/y, close to market expectations. Import growth is up from 2023 lows, but the trend through 2024 has not been encouraging, with a flat to softer outcomes mostly evident in the past 6 months. This side of the economy is yet to see the benefits of stimulus measures and some improvement in survey measures like PMIs but also harder data like IP. 

  • In terms of China commodity import volumes, we were down for coal in the month, along with oil, iron ore, soybeans, copper and natural gas. So every major commodity import category saw falls in m/m terms.
  • Most are still up in y/y terms. The y/y 3-mth MA trend is presented in the first figure below for coal, copper and iron ore. Only the coal trend looks positive at this stage, with iron ore and copper trending back towards 0%.
  • The second chart replicates the first but for oil and LNG. The LNG trend is more positive compared with oil at the moment.  
  • Import trends will be watched for signs of greater stimulus traction as we progress towards the end of this year. In 2025 focus may also shift to trade tensions with the US under the new US Administration.
  • When Trump was last in the White House he pushed for China to purchase more US argicultural products, but actual volumes purchased were well below what was agreed.  

Fig 1: China Commodity Imports - y/y% 3-mth ma, Iron ore, Coal & Copper 

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China headline imports were down -2.3% y/y, close to market expectations. Import growth is up from 2023 lows, but the trend through 2024 has not been encouraging, with a flat to softer outcomes mostly evident in the past 6 months. This side of the economy is yet to see the benefits of stimulus measures and some improvement in survey measures like PMIs but also harder data like IP. 

  • In terms of China commodity import volumes, we were down for coal in the month, along with oil, iron ore, soybeans, copper and natural gas. So every major commodity import category saw falls in m/m terms.
  • Most are still up in y/y terms. The y/y 3-mth MA trend is presented in the first figure below for coal, copper and iron ore. Only the coal trend looks positive at this stage, with iron ore and copper trending back towards 0%.
  • The second chart replicates the first but for oil and LNG. The LNG trend is more positive compared with oil at the moment.  
  • Import trends will be watched for signs of greater stimulus traction as we progress towards the end of this year. In 2025 focus may also shift to trade tensions with the US under the new US Administration.
  • When Trump was last in the White House he pushed for China to purchase more US argicultural products, but actual volumes purchased were well below what was agreed.  

Fig 1: China Commodity Imports - y/y% 3-mth ma, Iron ore, Coal & Copper 

Keep reading...Show less