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China Likely To Wait For Policy rate Cuts Until 2024

EMERGING MARKETS
  • EU: The European Central Bank is now at a point where it can pause and assess the impact of its tightening, according to President Christine Lagarde. Separately, Governing Council Member Robert Holzmann says there’s equal probability of a rate hike or cut in the second quarter of 2024, according to interview with Die Presse newspaper in Vienna.
  • China will likely wait until early next year to cut policy rates to support the economy, though other forms of easing before the end of 2023 via trims to shorter-term rates or reserve ratios are still in the cards. That’s according to the latest Bloomberg survey of economists, in which respondents said they see the rate on China’s one-year medium-term lending facility staying put at 2.5% by the end of the year, compared with the previous median estimate of a five bp trim.
  • ISRAEL/HAMAS - A pause in fighting appeared to hold Friday in the Gaza Strip between Israel and Hamas as both sides anticipated an exchange later in the day of more than a dozen Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners.
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