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China Repo Rates Drop

ASIA RATES
  • INDIA: Yields higher in early trade, markets look ahead to an INR 360bn bill sale later today. Data yesterday showed India's trade deficit narrowed more than expected in May, exports rose 69.4% while imports rose 73.6%. Imports took a bigger hit which was attributed to lower imports of gold. On the coronavirus front recoveries continue to outnumber daily new cases for the 34th consecutive day.
  • SOUTH KOREA: Futures ground lower after the release of a hawkish set of BoK minutes yesterday. Following the release many sell side analysts have bought forward hike calls. The minutes showed four out of the six monetary policy board members said it was appropriate to think about potential timing to adjust the degree of monetary easing. Timings of rate hikes have now been bought forward to Q4 2021 from Q1 2022, Citi expects a hike as soon as October 2021.
  • CHINA: Repo rates are lower today after rising for three consecutive sessions. The overnight repo rate is down 9bps at 2.0079%, while the 7-day repo rate is down 4bps at 2.1895% - back below the PBOC's 2.20% rate. The PBOC refrained from injecting liquidity again after rolling over the MLF and draining CNY 10bn via OMO's, speculation is rising that the central bank will soon inject liquidity, but the bank is expected to position these as a tool to smooth repo rate volatility rather than an easing signal. Futures are higher today, benefitting from lower repo rates and a decline in stocks with equity markets negative for the third straight session.
  • INDONESIA: Yields higher across the curve. Indonesian Econ Min Hartarto said that national economy is expected to rebound this year and the gov't remains confident that the GDP growth target of +4.5%-5.3% will be met. Hartarto added that the gov't has used 31.4% (or IDR219.65tn) of its 2021 pandemic stimulus budget. Bank Indonesia will deliver their latest MonPol decision tomorrow. Virtually all analysts expect them to leave their benchmark policy rate unchanged.

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