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US TSYS SUMMARY: *** Choppy session for what amounted to a steady FOMC policy
annc. Never underestimate month end extensions on flows. Note, mkts were anxious
of 10Y yld breach of 2.5% couple wks ago, 5Y ylds topped that Tue to Wed high
2.5509% revisiting Apr'10 lvl; 10Y ylds to Apr'14 lvls (2.7519H).
- Equities back higher after reversing gains/lower post FOMC (emini +2.0, 2826.5
late), gold higher (XAU +7.95, 1346.46), oil higher (WTI +0.35, 64.85).
- Rates higher on open ahead ADP private ADP(+234k), TBAC refunding annc ($66B
total 3/10s30 next wk), Chicago PMI (65.7 from 67.8/Dec) and Janet Yellen's
final FOMC annc (no presser/SEPs, however).
- Tsy futures traded heavy into midday, lead by 5s and 10s. Sources reported
continued selling from banks and real$ accts in 5s, 10s and 30s, some modest
short covering in5s from fast$ before latest downdraft. Hearing renewed interest
in 2s and 5s vs. 30s flatteners by props as curves resume flattening.
- Long end swap spds gapped wider -- canary in the coal mine for bank
- Late ylds: 2Y 2.145, 3Y 2.286%, 5Y 2.521%, 7Y 2.658%, 10Y 2.716%, 30Y 2.946%