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Citi Still Look For Back-to-Back 25bp Hikes After Payrolls

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Citi maintain their hawkish position on the analyst spectrum for the Fed after payrolls, still pencilling in 25bp hikes in June and July.
  • “An unexpectedly strong 339k increase in payroll employment highlights a clearly still-resilient labor market, despite the unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to 3.7% driven by a decline in household survey employment.”
  • They put more weight on the very strong payrolls growth: “Establishment survey employment (payrolls) is a more reliable indication of trend job growth. A one-month decline in volatile household survey employment following months of strength is unlikely to last.”
  • June SEP forecasts: very likely to show stronger activity and inflation, and consequently higher "dots" policy rates. The u/e rate should also be lowered “although possibly not quite as much now”.
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