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Cleveland Fed Core CPI Nowcast On Low Side If Overshoot Maintained

US DATA
  • The Cleveland Fed's core CPI nowcast pencils in a 0.33% M/M increase in November, essentially the same figure it had for October.
  • The nowcast overshot by 0.11pps in October or 0.08pps on average over the past three months. A similar overshoot in November would leave it slightly below consensus, with a median Bloomberg response of 0.3% but a bias lower with an average 0.26% M/M.
  • Headline CPI meanwhile is seen at -0.01% M/M.
  • See the main drivers of analyst forecasts in the MNI US CPI Preview here.


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