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CNB Likely to Hike By 50bps

CZECHIA
  • The CNB is likely to raise its benchmark rate by 50bps to 5.5% at its next meeting on May 5 to continue its ‘fight’ against inflation, which is expected to remain elevated longer than what policymakers previously estimated.
  • While some analysts expect this week’s hike to be the last one, other sell-side analysts are pricing in a terminal rate at 6% (STIR market pricing in a terminal rate between 6% and 6.25%).
  • The other area of focus at this week’s meeting will be whether the CNB turns more open to using the exchange rate more actively as a policy tool.
  • Czech President Milos Zeman met central bank board member Ales Michl as the head of state prepares to make decisions on three upcoming appointments to the rate setting panel, including a new governor (BBG).
  • PM FIala announced yesterday that Czech Republic stands ready to support EU ban on Russian oil. However, Czech Republic needs some time to apply the ban; PM Fiala is seeking a 2- to 3-year exemption from Russian oil ban.
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