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CNB Surprises Market With 75bps Hike

CZECHIA
  • CNB surprised the market yesterday by hiking its policy rate by 75bps to 5.75% (vs. 50bps expected).
  • This decision was unexpected (base scenarios were expecting 25bps / 50bps hike) following Rusnok comments that future rate hikes will be considered ‘cosmetic fine tuning’.
  • CZK has been trending slightly higher following the decision, with EURCZK testing its ST support at 24.50 in the past two days. A break below that level would open the door for a move down to 24.30.
  • According the CNB statement, there is a possibility to see more rate hikes at the next meetings.
  • The central bank raised its average inflation estimate for this year to 13.1% (vs. 8.5%) and to 4.1% for 2023 (vs. 2.3%).
  • Rusnok expects slight contraction in H2.
  • The EU proposed exemption until June 2024 for Czech Republic to its plan to ban Russian oil imports by the end of the year.
  • This follows PM Fiala’s recent comments that Czech Republic needs some time to apply the ban; Fiala was seeking a 2- to 3-year exemption from Russian oil ban.
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