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CNH Steady, USD/KRW Rebounds

ASIA FX

USD/Asia pairs are mostly pushing higher today, even with USD/CNH remaining relatively steady. The rebound in USD/KRW has been noticeable, while USD gains elsewhere have been more modest. The INR has outperformed at the margins. Still to come is Indian wholesale inflation, while tomorrow the main focus will be on China's 1yr MLF (a cut is expected) and May activity data. The Taiwan central bank also meets, with rates expected to be held steady.

  • USD/CNH has been relatively steady, unable to spend much time sub 7.1700, while finding selling interest closer to 7.1800. Onshore equities are firmer, while China Foreign Minister Qin and US Secretary of State Blinken spoke earlier today via phone. During the discussion Qin said that the US should stop interfering in China’s internal affairs, which is not unusual. But he also said that the US should respect issues which are important to China, such as Taiwan, and should stop hurting China by using competition as an excuse. Blinken is scheduled to travel to travel this Sunday.
  • 1 month USD/KRW has bounced strongly from recent lows, last tracking in the 1277/78 region, after closing Tuesday in NY at ~1265. Onshore equities are weaker, -0.70% for the Kospi, -2.5% for the Kosdaq. These moves look to be unwinding recent outperformance rather than fundamentally driven. 1280 may a near term upside target for the 1 month NDF. Earlier the unemployment rate ticked down to 2.5%, better than expected, and supporting the BoK's hawkish stance at the margins.
  • USD/INR has opened dealing ~0.1% softer today, last printing at 82.25/30. Bears look to target low from May 4 at 81.6563. Bulls look to target a break of the 83 handle, the last test of 83 saw the RBI intervene in the FX market. RBI's Das noted yesterday that the disinflation process is likely to be slow and protracted. Also noting that the bank may meet its 4% target only in the medium term. More here. On the wires today we have May Wholesale Prices, a fall of 2.50% Y/Y is expected.
  • The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) has firmed in the wake of yesterday's US CPI report printing a fresh cycle high before moderating gains. We now sit ~0.5% below the upper end of the band. USD/SGD has had a muted start to today's session, narrows have been narrow and SGD is a touch firmer. Today's FOMC meeting provides the next risk event for the pair. The Fed is expected to hold rates, however attention will be on any forward guidance that the bank provides.
  • The Ringgit has pared Tuesday's gains in early dealing, USD/MYR prints at 4.6180/6220 up ~0.2% from closing levels. Broader greenback trends continue to dominate flows in recent sessions however ranges do remain relatively narrow as the pair consolidates above 4.60. Palm Oil futures are at their highest level since 30 May and now sit ~9% above cycle lows seen in early June. Stronger soybean prices and the risk of an El Nino weather pattern on production have offset concerns about growing supply. A reminder that the domestic data calendar is empty for the remainder of the week.

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