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Consensus Sees Lower EURHUF in Medium Term

HUNGARY
  • Is the overshoot in inflation in the CEE region already priced in by the market or should we expect some readjustments in the currency market (i.e. weaker CEE currencies) as inflation continues to rise?
  • Some sell-side banks have been closely watching 370 resistance on EURHUF as further HUF weakness could eventually push the NBH to hike its 1W depo rate (currently at 0.75%) as early as Q2 despite the worsening Covid situation.
  • However, consensus expects the HUF to slightly strengthen relative to the Euro in the medium term:
    • 2021 year-end consensus sees EURHUF at 364
    • 2022 year-end: 361
    • 2023 year-end: 333



Source: Bloomberg/MNI

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com

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