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Consolidating Above $1.10, Rate Differentials Continue to Narrow

AUDNZD

AUD/NZD is consolidating in narrow ranges above $1.10 after breaking above the handle last week post the RBA rate hike.

  • Any dips below the $1.10 handle have been brief and resistance has come in above $1.1040. We last print at $1.1020/30.
  • Rate differentials, observed via 2-Year Swaps, sit at -100bps this is the narrowest since late February. We were as wide as -165bps in late May.
  • Now that the $1.10 handle has been cleared bulls target YTD highs at $1.1088, a break through here opens $1.1150 a Fibonacci projection.
  • On the downside bears first target the low from 6 June ($1.0884).
  • Data wise the highlights this week cross on Thursday, from Australia we have the May Labor Market Report and New Zealand's Q1 GDP crosses.

Fig 1: AUD/NZD vs Au NZ 2 Year Swap

Source: MNI/Bloomberg

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