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CONSUMER CYCLICALS: VF Corp (VFC; Ba1/BBB- Neg) drifts wider into earnings

CONSUMER CYCLICALS
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  • Curve is setting itself up for a very interesting earnings (Monday after US close, 29s Z+260/B+290)
  • It is net 40-50bps wider from the 1Q celebrations (mid August)
    • We warned then that a) we did not see enough evidence to call it a turnaround and b) saw near term catalyst as skewed negative
  • Hopefully it can give us more to work with this time. All the best.

€29 spread (MS+); 2 weeks prior move vs. earnings day and 2 weeks after move

  • 2Q; +35 vs. xx
  • 1Q; +40 vs. -10
  • 4Q; +1 vs +20
  • 3Q; +3 vs unch
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  • Curve is setting itself up for a very interesting earnings (Monday after US close, 29s Z+260/B+290)
  • It is net 40-50bps wider from the 1Q celebrations (mid August)
    • We warned then that a) we did not see enough evidence to call it a turnaround and b) saw near term catalyst as skewed negative
  • Hopefully it can give us more to work with this time. All the best.

€29 spread (MS+); 2 weeks prior move vs. earnings day and 2 weeks after move

  • 2Q; +35 vs. xx
  • 1Q; +40 vs. -10
  • 4Q; +1 vs +20
  • 3Q; +3 vs unch