CONSUMER STAPLES: Consumer: Week In Review
With the exception of B&M earnings and Flutter’s guidance cut most reporting for the quarter ending November saw in-line growth (Sodexo, Tesco, InPost) to beats (Pluxee and Walgreen Boots). Primary was as expected for this time of the quarter; strong books kept NIC’s muted. The exception was Heathrow that had to hand out 7bps to FV – recent tariff caps may have impacted sentiment. The movers in secondary were continuation of 4Q; Barry Callebaut 29s on Cocoa price linked headwinds, ITM 29s on S&P’s IG rating tailwind and Campari 27s on RV. IAG’s €400m tender across the 27/29s took us by surprise and marks an end - for some - on a name that has been a blessing to credit and equity investors.
Fundamentals linked news
- Walgreen Boots: delivers a strong beat that was driven by headline sales across core US Pharmacy Retail and International (Boots + Germany wholesale). Margin performance in the former also held better than expected. Unfortunately, FY guidance was left unchanged.
- B&M: the UK focused discount retailer reported falling LFL sales (again) on price investments, but noted the back-end of the quarter saw growth. It expects that to continue for the year ahead. Paired with good BS governance, current levels largely reflect the uncertainty ahead. If it does deliver, we may see value on it again.
- Tesco: results are firm as expected. FY guidance left unchanged and disappointed equities, but management downplayed any evidence of consumer weakness in the UK. It instead implied it will hit the top-end of target range. No concern from us, BS governance has been a green flag.
- Flutter: cuts FY guidance on an unfavourable NFL season citing it as a one-off. Equity markets were satisfied with the reasoning and upgrades to ex. US earnings leaves leverage impact limited to 0.15x. It reversed partially from tights on the news. If it continues to widen, we will be biased to see value again.
- Lufthansa: A revisit to fundamentals as it issues a hybrid. Moody’s comments confirm what we have said previously; it is outside IG thresholds. An ambitious +€1.5b EBIT lift to 2026 (from last years guided to ~ €1.6b) is keeping Moody’s satisfied for now. (https://mni.marketnews.com/4a8M1AN)
Event Driven Moves
- Alimentation Couche-Tard: 7-11 reports rough earnings but reiterates it is considering all three of either a a) restructuring move, Couche’s $57b (~¥7.5t) offer or the internal Ito-Family’s ¥9t offer (values from insiders, bbg). Bloomberg carried leaks later that Apollo was considering a up to ¥1.5t stake to support the Ito-bid. It also mentioned financing support from most of the major Japanese banks were still there. A defensive target (from day-1) alongside the internal bid picking up traction continues to paint 7-11 as out of Couche-Tard’s reach.
- Holiday updates to the M&A watchlist here including Křetínský getting the green-light to take IDS private. (https://mni.marketnews.com/427Wqug)
Primary Activity
- IG: Nestle 7/20y at +57/+115, Heathrow 11y at +142, Ferrovial 5y at +97
- HY; Tereos 6.25-NC-2.25 at 5.75% (OAS+305)
Rating Actions
- Walgreen Boots (Unsec; BB- Stable/B1 Stable); S&P with a 1-notch downgrade to BB- but stabilising the outlook in the process (31st Dec). It started the year on IG ratings. S&P’s qualitative outlook on earnings is in line with company’s numeric guidance for FY25; lacklustre.