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Continuing upside momentum

STIR FUTURES
  • There have been no real headline triggers but STIR futures have continued yesterday's upside momentum in early European trading - reversing a small pullback during the Asian session. Euribor, SONIA and Eurodollar futures are all seeing moves up to 7.5 ticks higher at writing (with the Euribor strip a couple of ticks off its highs).
  • For the ECB, markets price 29bp for July (down around 5bp so far this week), 77bp by September and 148bp by year-end (down 25bp so far this week).
  • The SONIA strip no longer fully prices a 50bp hike in August, with 48bp now priced (down 10bp this week so far), 92bp (cumulatively) by September, 134bp by November and 158bp by year-end (down 25bp this week).
  • For the Fed, around 69bp is priced for July (little changed on the week), 127bp (cumulatively) by September and 181by by year-end (down 15bp on the week).

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