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Copom Minutes At The Top Of The Hour

BRAZIL
  • For reference, at the Feb 2 meeting, the Copom made their third consecutive 150bp hike of the Selic rate to 10.75%. The Copom also signalled a moderation of the magnitude of hikes going forward:
    • “For its next steps, the Committee foresees as adequate, at this moment, a reduction in the pace of adjustment of the interest rate.”
  • Goldman Sachs on the minutes: Given the clarity of the post-meeting statement and guidance for the next meeting GS do not expect major innovations in the minutes; i.e., they expect the minutes to reiterate the post meeting policy statement message and policy signals. However, they will be looking for:
  • Discussion among directors on the extent to which the hawkish pivot by the FOMC and other core DM central banks may condition how and at what Selic level the Copom ends the current tightening cycle.
  • Whether the Copom is now more comfortable with a trade-off involving a large overshoot of the 2022 target (and the possibility of inflation breaching above the upper-limit of the inflation target band for the second year in a row) as long as inflation remains on a downward trajectory with a high probability of convergence to the lower target in 2023.
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