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BRAZIL: Copom Minutes Due Tomorrow

BRAZIL
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  • The BCB will publish the minutes to the January 29 Copom meeting tomorrow, when the Selic rate was cut by another 100bp in a unanimous decision. At that meeting, the Copom reiterated its guidance for another 100bp hike at the next meeting in March, but kept the guidance beyond March open-ended, with the degree of tightening dependant on the incoming data. See the full MNI review of the meeting, with analyst views here.
    • In tomorrow’s minutes, Goldman Sachs will be looking for discussion around the forward-guidance and whether some directors would have favoured more explicit guidance beyond the March meeting. They will also be looking for discussion about the depth of the hiking cycle given that the Copom’s conditional inflation forecasts for the next six-quarters moved further and significantly above the 3.0% target and with a balance of risks for inflation that remains skewed to the upside.
    • Meanwhile, JPM will be watching the minutes to understand how significant Board members see the downside risks to growth relative to the deterioration of the inflation outlook. JPM notes that many viewed the mention of a potentially sharper-than-expected deceleration of domestic growth as the highlight of the statement. But in JPM’s view, the rest of the statement counterbalanced this change.
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  • The BCB will publish the minutes to the January 29 Copom meeting tomorrow, when the Selic rate was cut by another 100bp in a unanimous decision. At that meeting, the Copom reiterated its guidance for another 100bp hike at the next meeting in March, but kept the guidance beyond March open-ended, with the degree of tightening dependant on the incoming data. See the full MNI review of the meeting, with analyst views here.
    • In tomorrow’s minutes, Goldman Sachs will be looking for discussion around the forward-guidance and whether some directors would have favoured more explicit guidance beyond the March meeting. They will also be looking for discussion about the depth of the hiking cycle given that the Copom’s conditional inflation forecasts for the next six-quarters moved further and significantly above the 3.0% target and with a balance of risks for inflation that remains skewed to the upside.
    • Meanwhile, JPM will be watching the minutes to understand how significant Board members see the downside risks to growth relative to the deterioration of the inflation outlook. JPM notes that many viewed the mention of a potentially sharper-than-expected deceleration of domestic growth as the highlight of the statement. But in JPM’s view, the rest of the statement counterbalanced this change.