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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NEW ZEALAND
The RBNZ’s measure of core inflation from its sectoral factor model moderated to 3.6% y/y in Q2 from 4.2%, the lowest since Q3 2021 but still above the central bank’s 1-3% band. It has moderated more than 2pp over the last year but remains above the pre-Covid series average of 2.1% (to 1993). The RBNZ will be reassured that underlying price pressures are easing and more confident that inflation will sustainably return to target. We believe though that it will want to see Q3 CPI on October 16 before cutting rates.
- Both core tradeables and non-tradeables moderated but as with headline inflation, the bulk of the work was done by the former rising only 0.8% y/y.
- Underlying non-tradeables inflation moderated to a still high 4.8% y/y in Q2 from 5.1% in Q1 and its peak of 5.5% a year ago. It remains uncomfortably above the pre-Covid series average of 3.1% and the RBNZ is likely to want to see it a lot closer to that mark.
NZ RBNZ sectoral factor model core inflation y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/RBNZ
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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