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Core PCE Inflation On Track For Low 0.2% M/M

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  • Core CPI surprisingly slowed from 0.58% to 0.27% M/M in October (consensus 0.5) in part from softer rental inflation and a sharp tick lower in medical care services prices.
  • Different methodologies for core PCE – which is ultimately what the Fed is focused on – see estimates tracking in the low 0.2% M/M region, depending on details in next week’s PPI release.
  • That would near enough close the wedge to core CPI (with PCE typically lower), meaning a slightly slower moderation on the month from the 0.45% in Sept, whilst remaining above the July low of 0.05%.
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  • Core CPI surprisingly slowed from 0.58% to 0.27% M/M in October (consensus 0.5) in part from softer rental inflation and a sharp tick lower in medical care services prices.
  • Different methodologies for core PCE – which is ultimately what the Fed is focused on – see estimates tracking in the low 0.2% M/M region, depending on details in next week’s PPI release.
  • That would near enough close the wedge to core CPI (with PCE typically lower), meaning a slightly slower moderation on the month from the 0.45% in Sept, whilst remaining above the July low of 0.05%.