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Economists Survey Raises 2021 CPI Forecast To 4.9%

--Fixes Oct Figures
     BEIJING (MNI) - New home prices in China rose in 50 out of 70 cities in
November on a month-on-month basis, the National Bureau of Statistics said on
Monday, with smaller cities driving gains. The figure was unchanged from
October.
     Ten cities saw price drops, down from 14 in October, while the 10 other
cities in the NBS survey experienced no change. 
     E-House Real Estate Research Institute told MNI that its Housing Price
Index rose 0.4% on a monthly basis, compared with a rise of 0.3% the month
before, and was the highest since July, when the index was 0.5%.
     Yan Yuejin, the director of the research institute, said the rise was due
to eased housing price controls, as well as a rebound in sales in some cities.
Some of the housing controls have included increased waiting times before
property units can be resold, restricting non-residents and people without jobs
in certain cities from purchasing homes, and increasing mortgage rates.
     On a year-on-year basis, new home prices gained in 59 cities in November,
one less than in October. They fell in 11 cities, one more than in October,
while two reported unchanged prices.
     On a monthly basis, Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang Province, posted the
highest price growth rate of 1.9%, followed by 1.5% in Zhanjiang, in Guangdong
Province, and 1.3% in both Xining, the capital of Qinghai Province, and Guilin,
in Guangxi Province.
     New home prices declined the fastest on a m/m basis in Quanzhou at -0.4%,
followed by -0.3% both in Tianjin and Yangzhou, and -0.2% in Shenzhen, Nanjing,
Wuxi and Haikou.
     Y/y price growth was highest in Beihai, in Guangxi Province, with Xi'an of
Shaanxi Province (+12.3%), Shenyang of Liaoning Province (+11.8%), Chongqing
City (+10.8%) and Harbin of Heilongjiang Province (+10.5%) also topping the list
of big gainers.
     Y/y prices dropped fastest in cities that had some of the most rapid price
gains before local governments implemented stricter housing policies. Shenzhen
saw the biggest drop of 3.2%, followed by -1.8% in Fuzhou, -1.5% in Nanjing,
-1.3% in Wuxi, and -1.3% in Chengdu. 
     Tier-1 cities continue to suffer the most from tightening measures.
     Liu Jianwei, a senior NBS statistician, said Monday in a statement
accompanying the data release that new home prices dropped for the 14th
consecutive month year-on-year in Tier-1 cities in November, by 0.3%. They also
dropped in Tier-3 cities by 0.3%, the fourth straight month of drops. Tier-2
cities, however, saw price growth expand by 0.1 percentage point.
     On a monthly basis, only Tier-1 cities experienced new home price drop of
0.1%, compared with 0.5% and 0.4% m/m growth, respectively, in Tier-2 and Tier-3
cities.
     But, Yan said, "The hottest stage for the property market in Tier-3 cities
has already passed, and it has entered an adjustment stage." The new direction
may indicate the healthier development of the property sector in such cities, he
said. 
--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: vince.morkri@marketnews.com
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