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INDONESIA: Country Wrap: Indonesia 4Q GDP Beats Estimates.

INDONESIA
EM BulletBulletIndonesiaAPACEmerging Market News
  • Q4 Indonesian GDP was as expected rising 0.5% q/q and 5.0% y/y up from 4.9% in Q3 leaving 2024 up 5% in line with 2023. Bank Indonesia said in January that it expected 2024 growth to be “slightly below the midpoint of the 4.7-5.5% range” and for Q4 to be “slightly” below expectations due to lower domestic demand. It has cut rates 50bp this cycle and continues to support growth with macroprudential policies given its focus on the rupiah which has been weaker. This should continue in 2025 accompanied by more rate cuts. (source: MNI – Market News).
  • Government’s tight budget policy receive mixed responses.  Government officials, legislators and public give mixed responses toward the policy of President Prabowo Subianto-Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka that has imposed tight policy on operational budgets of ministries and state institutions (source: Indonesia Business Post).
  • Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite brushed off the better than expected GDP result to fall today by -0.58%, wiping out almost all of yesterday’s gains.
  • IDR: despite the equity market’s weak day, the Rupiah has had a positive day gaining +0.165 to reach 16,324.
  • Bonds: risk sentiment returned to Indonesia with bond markets lighting up, with yields down across the curve.  Outperformer was the 5YR INDOGB down 8bps to 6.743%. 
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  • Q4 Indonesian GDP was as expected rising 0.5% q/q and 5.0% y/y up from 4.9% in Q3 leaving 2024 up 5% in line with 2023. Bank Indonesia said in January that it expected 2024 growth to be “slightly below the midpoint of the 4.7-5.5% range” and for Q4 to be “slightly” below expectations due to lower domestic demand. It has cut rates 50bp this cycle and continues to support growth with macroprudential policies given its focus on the rupiah which has been weaker. This should continue in 2025 accompanied by more rate cuts. (source: MNI – Market News).
  • Government’s tight budget policy receive mixed responses.  Government officials, legislators and public give mixed responses toward the policy of President Prabowo Subianto-Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka that has imposed tight policy on operational budgets of ministries and state institutions (source: Indonesia Business Post).
  • Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite brushed off the better than expected GDP result to fall today by -0.58%, wiping out almost all of yesterday’s gains.
  • IDR: despite the equity market’s weak day, the Rupiah has had a positive day gaining +0.165 to reach 16,324.
  • Bonds: risk sentiment returned to Indonesia with bond markets lighting up, with yields down across the curve.  Outperformer was the 5YR INDOGB down 8bps to 6.743%.