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CPI As Exp; Bullard Cites Inflation For Likely Mar Hike, Four in '22

US TSYS
Support in rates evaporated late Wednesday after StL Fed Bullard said four hikes in 2022 are likely in a Wall Street Journal interview, citing rising inflation with the first coming in March. Still an inside range session with levels off early session lows by the close (30YY 2.0861% vs 2.0883H; 10YY 1.7357% vs. 1.7517%H.
  • Not much fanfare to largely in-line Dec CPI: CPI 0.5%, CORE 0.6%; CPI Y/Y 7.0%, CORE Y/Y 5.5%. Markets had priced in higher inflation metrics already, delayed rally in rates and equities as measure not much worse than expected. US$ to two-month lows, however (DXY -.685 to 94.939).
  • Cross asset inflation observations -- CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES FELL 4.55 MLN BARRELS, EIA vs. exp decline of 1.85 million barrels. West Texas crude surged to near 83.0 (82.94H).
  • Tsy futures pare gains after $36B 10Y note auction re-open (91282CDJ7) tailed slightly again: 1.723% high yield vs. 1.719% WI; 2.43x bid-to-cover better than last month's 2.43x but still shy a 2.51x 5-month average
  • Indirect take-up falls to 65.53% (lowest since July) vs. Dec's 68.84%; direct bidder take-up highest since June at 17.86% while primary dealer take-up bounces to 16.61% vs. 13.37% prior.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 2.6bps at 0.9089%, 5-Yr is up 0.2bps at 1.5007%, 10-Yr is down 0.2bps at 1.734%, and 30-Yr is up 2bps at 2.0817%.
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