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CPI Preview: At Risk Of Repetition, Watch Shelter

US
  • CPI for December is released on Wed at 0830ET/1330GMT.
  • Consensus is for another strong core CPI print of +0.5% M/M (average 0.49%) with headline a touch softer at +0.4% M/M on lower energy prices. That would push annual inflation up to 7% Y/Y for headline (+0.2pps) and 5.4% Y/Y for core (+0.5pps).
  • The expected drivers are very similar to last month. Some of the sequential strength should be from specific categories such as cars (used more so than new), medical prices and airfares, whilst analysts will be focusing on more underlying measures of inflation such as shelter. Rents and owner equivalent rents are widely expected to print another strong ~0.4% M/M.

See our full report including analyst previews here:

https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/documents/13431/USCPIPrevJan2022.pdf

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