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Credit Data Show Economy Slowing

AUSTRALIA DATA

The RBA’s total credit measure grew less than expected in June at 0.2% m/m to be up 5.5% y/y down from 6.2%, the lowest since October 2021. All the major components had slowed on the year except other personal credit, which is now +0.5% y/y after a trough of -12.9% in September 2020, as it has become a source of finance as cost of living issues bite. While not a tier 1 data series, the downward trends in credit are pointing to slowing growth and pressure on households.

  • Total housing credit rose 0.2% m/m and 4.5% y/y, down from 5%, the lowest since April 2021. While credit for owner occupiers was steady up 0.4% m/m (+5.3% y/y), it contracted 0.1% for investors to be only +3% y/y, which was the first monthly fall since the Covid-impacted June 2020. Between higher rates and talk of intervention in the housing market, investors are losing confidence.
  • Credit for non-financial businesses rose a moderate 0.3% m/m but it remains up a robust 8.3% y/y but down from May’s 9.7%.
  • Broad money growth continued to slow with the first monthly decline since April 2018 and the annual rate at 4.3% y/y down from 5.9%.
Australia credit 12mth % change

Source: MNI - Market News/RBA

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