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Crude Backwardation Strong on Potential Tighter Supply

OIL

Brent and WTI crude time spreads are reflecting the expected tighter supplies with both short and long term spreads near or at the highest since November.

  • The WTI prompt spread is holding onto gains after a strong rally yesterday brought the spread into backwardation.
  • The OPEC production cut starting in May, the ongoing halt to Iraqi Kurdistan oil flows from Turkey and signs that Russian exports could be reducing after production cuts all point to a tighter balance. Ongoing concern for economic growth and global demand combined with uncertainty over the rate of recovery in China are limiting upside moves.
  • WTI is also supported by another draw in stocks at Cushing this week with levels now well below the five year average after declining since late Feb.
  • Spreads are today moving in line with the futures and holding near to previous close levels.
    • Brent JUN 23 down 0% at 87.32$/bbl
    • WTI MAY 23 up 0.1% at 83.31$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 23-JUL 23 down -0.02$/bbl at 0.56$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 unchanged at 5.88$/bbl
    • WTI MAY 23-JUN 23 down -0.01$/bbl at 0.16$/bbl
    • WTI DEC 23-DEC 24 down -0.02$/bbl at 6.17$/bbl


    Source: Bloomberg

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