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Crude Bounces With Unexpected US Draw

COMMODITIES
  • Crude oil bounced after an unexpected draw in EIA crude stocks, driven by record exports and a dip in production. Furthermore, refinery utilization was down more the expected due to a fall in the Gulf, East and West Coasts whilst there was a big draw in gasoline with implied demand recovering back above 2020 levels and towards normal.
  • WTI is +1.4% at $87.78, earlier only just holding off Aug 16 lows of $85.73, which still forms support, clearance of which would have exposed Mar 15 lows of $85.37. On the upside, key short-term resistance is defined at $95.05 (Aug 11 high), whilst today’s most active strikes in the CLU2 have been $90/bbl calls.
  • Brent is +1.1% at $93.35, again having come close to the bear trigger at $91.22 (Jul 14 low). Should the increase continue, key short-term resistance is seen at $100.38 (Aug 12 high).
  • Gold meanwhile suffers again, sliding -0.46% at $1767.56 with USD strength and higher Tsy yields, gaining only some respite from a more dovish than expected set of FOMC minutes. It clears support at the 20-day EMA of $1772.4, opening key short-term support at $1754.4 (Aug 3 low).

WTI 1st future (white) and spot gold (yellow)Source: Bloomberg

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  • Crude oil bounced after an unexpected draw in EIA crude stocks, driven by record exports and a dip in production. Furthermore, refinery utilization was down more the expected due to a fall in the Gulf, East and West Coasts whilst there was a big draw in gasoline with implied demand recovering back above 2020 levels and towards normal.
  • WTI is +1.4% at $87.78, earlier only just holding off Aug 16 lows of $85.73, which still forms support, clearance of which would have exposed Mar 15 lows of $85.37. On the upside, key short-term resistance is defined at $95.05 (Aug 11 high), whilst today’s most active strikes in the CLU2 have been $90/bbl calls.
  • Brent is +1.1% at $93.35, again having come close to the bear trigger at $91.22 (Jul 14 low). Should the increase continue, key short-term resistance is seen at $100.38 (Aug 12 high).
  • Gold meanwhile suffers again, sliding -0.46% at $1767.56 with USD strength and higher Tsy yields, gaining only some respite from a more dovish than expected set of FOMC minutes. It clears support at the 20-day EMA of $1772.4, opening key short-term support at $1754.4 (Aug 3 low).

WTI 1st future (white) and spot gold (yellow)Source: Bloomberg