Crude Falls Back as Demand Concern Offsets Saudi Output Cut

Crude falls back as global demand concerns in US and China still hang over the market despite the latest voluntary production cut of 1mbpd from Saudi Arabia in July. The cut so far appears supportive rather than bullish with Brent and WTI both back at the levels seen last week prior to the OPEC meeting.

• Brent AUG 23 down -0.8% at 76.12$/bbl
• WTI JUL 23 down -0.9% at 71.51$/bbl
• Gasoil JUN 23 down -1.2% at 698.75$/mt
• WTI-Brent up 0.01$/bbl at -4.46$/bbl
• IEA’s Birol yesterday said the market already expected an imbalance in oil market in the second half of this year and OPEC’s new measures will deepen the supply-demand gap.
• Saudi Arabia yesterday announced an increase in the official selling prices for crude oil in July to Asia, US and Europe against market expectation before the OPEC meeting of a price decrease.
  • Brent AUG 23-SEP 23 unchanged at 0.24$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 down -0.15$/bbl at 3.41$/bbl
• Crude time spreads have ease off from the highs yesterday, but crude backwardation is holding onto some of the gains from yesterday. Dec23-Dec24 yesterday traded at the highest since late April but is still well below the levels seen after the voluntary OPEC cuts announced at the start of April.
• The front month WTI-Brent spread is easing lower from around -4.0$/bbl mid last week to -4.45$/bbl with US recession fears weighing on WTI.
  • US gasoline crack up 0.4$/bbl at 34.68$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0.1$/bbl at 27.93$/bbl
• Diesel and gasoline crack spreads in Europe and US are edging higher but gains are limited by demand concerns. The potential for higher crude prices this year could further pressure refining margins with Taiwan’s FPCC saying it will consider making deeper operational cuts should crude prices rise significantly.