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Crude Futures and Time Spreads Extend Rally on Hope for Demand Recovery

OIL

Crude extending the weekly rally with upward pressure from hope for a recovery in China and a short term boost to demand ahead of the Lunar New Year. Uncertainty over the impact of a possible global economic slowdown is limiting moves ahead of the updated US inflation data later today.

  • Core CPI inflation is seen nudging up to 0.3% M/M in December after surprising lower with 0.20% last month as the three main areas of core - shelter, services ex shelter and goods - all moderated.
  • Curve backwardation is steepening slightly, and the prompt spread is trading back up to -0.1$/bbl from a low of -0.32 earlier this week.
    • Brent MAR 23 up 1.1% at 83.58$/bbl
    • WTI FEB 23 up 1% at 78.22$/bbl
    • WTI-Brent down -0.15$/bbl at -5.13$/bbl
    • Brent MAR 23-APR 23 up 0.09$/bbl at -0.1$/bbl
    • Brent APR 23-MAY 23 up 0.1$/bbl at 0.25$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 23-DEC 23 up 0.35$/bbl at 2.62$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.21$/bbl at 4.05$/bbl

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