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Crude Holding Within November Range

OIL

Brent crude oil drifting lower after an initial surge late yesterday on the potential for escalation of the Ukraine war after a missile struck Poland. NATO will hold an emergency meeting today although President Biden has urged caution. Crude is currently trading at the lower end of the recent 92$/bbl to 98$/bbl range with forecasts of lower demand growth weighed against tight supply concerns.

    • Brent JAN 23 down -0.5% at 93.41$/bbl
    • WTI DEC 22 down -0.7% at 86.34$/bbl
    • Gasoil DEC 22 up 0.2% at 992$/mt
    • WTI-Brent down -0.05$/bbl at -7.66$/bbl
  • Monthly reports from IEA and OPEC both reduced oil demand growth forecasts this week on mounting economic headwinds. China’s persistently weak economy, Europe’s energy crisis, burgeoning product cracks and the strong US dollar are all weighing heavily on consumption.
    • Brent JAN 23-FEB 23 down -0.03$/bbl at 1.08$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 23-DEC 23 down -0.13$/bbl at 4.03$/bbl
  • The reports also highlight supply risks from Russia along with OPEC underproduction and limited US shale growth expected. The latest EIA drilling report showed a small increase in US production expected in December. Crude time spreads continue lower today but the curve remains in strong backwardation.
    • US gasoline crack unchanged at 18.76$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0$/bbl at 65.49$/bbl
  • API inventory data showed a fall in crude stocks and a build in product stocks. Diesel and gasoline cracks spreads are holding steady today with tight supplies supporting the spreads especially for diesel, but demand concerns are limiting upside gains.
Energy BulletsCommodities
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