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Crude Holds Within Range Amid Further Russia Drone Attacks

OIL

Crude front month futures continue to trade within the $80.7/bbl to $84.3/bbl range seen over the last month with little change yesterday following the US CPI data and industry reports. Brent is pulling back from a high of $82.6/bbl earlier today amid broader USD strength and potential for higher interest rates following the US CPI print.

    • Brent MAY 24 up 0.4% at 82.21$/bbl
    • WTI APR 24 up 0.4% at 77.85$/bbl
    • Gasoil APR 24 up 0% at 807.75$/mt
    • WTI-Brent up 0.03$/bbl at -4.66$/bbl
  • Another fire and possible drone attacks was reported on an oil refinery in Russia’s Ryzan region. The latest attack follows on from similar strikes on infrastructure yesterday. Lukoil’s 340kbpd Norsi refinery shut the main CDU yesterday, meaning at least half of the refinery’s production is halted.
  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report maintained its oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 at 2.25mbpd this year. OPEC raised oil output 200kbpd to 26.6mbpd in February, it also overshot its production target by 200kbpd.
  • The EIA STEO forecast a supply deficit of 0.26m b/d in 2024 and a surplus of 0.36m b/d in 2025. Brent crude oil price forecast is seen at $87/bbl in 2024 and at $84.80/bbl in 2025.
    • Brent MAY 24-JUN 24 unchanged at 0.46$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 up 0.1$/bbl at 3.4$/bbl
  • Crude time spreads are also holding steady after seeing a pull back over the last week, although the curve remains in strong backwardation suggesting tighter market conditions.
  • Gasoline cracks spreads rallied yesterday to the highest closing level since August. Upside comes from refinery outages and signs of tightening supply as summer driving season approaches. API data showed further draws in US gasoline and distillates stocks last week.
    • US gasoline crack up 0.1$/bbl at 31.31$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.3$/bbl at 32.63$/bbl

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