Crude Keeps Falling As OPEC Not Expected To Cut Output

Oil prices were lower again on Monday falling around 0.7% after Friday’s sharp decline. Weak China industrial profits and uncertainty over further OPEC+ cuts going into Thursday’s meeting in an environment of additional supply is weighing on crude. The market remains focused on supply/demand fundamentals. The USD index is 0.5% weaker as UST yields moved lower and US data was softer.

• WTI is down 0.7% to hover around $75/bbl. This followed a high of $76.23, while the intraday low was $74.06. Prices were volatile as news about the upcoming OPEC meeting came out throughout the day. Support is at $72.37, November 16 low.
• Brent fell 0.6% to hold above $80 and is now at $80.11. It rose to $81.17 during the NY morning after having reached a low of $79.13. Support is at $76.60, November 8 low.
• Pressure on oil prices has been exacerbated by hedge funds reducing their net long positions significantly ahead of this week’s OPEC meeting.
• There have been reports that the group remains divided over whether to cut output further with many reluctant to do so and the Nigeria/Angola quota increase has not yet been agreed. CME Group estimates a 67.8% probability that there will be no change in the output level and 24.8% that it will be increased, according to Dow Jones.
• The market is speculating that if OPEC+ can’t agree on quotas that Saudi Arabia will end its voluntary cuts and “flood the market” pushing prices down for all members.
• The rebuild of the US SPR has been delayed due to the slow return of barrels from some companies, according to Bloomberg.