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OIL: Crude Lower As Tariffs Delayed But Market Outlook Very Uncertain

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Oil prices are lower again today with WTI down 1.1% to $72.37/bbl and Brent -0.5% to $75.55/bbl, holding above initial support levels. The 30-day postponement on US tariffs for Canada and Mexico has weighed on crude during APAC trading today. Talks are ongoing regarding the 10% on imports from China scheduled from midnight NY time today. The USD index is 0.1% lower. 

  • Crude has risen on news of trade taxes but the outlook continues to worry the market. The strength of demand from China, the world’s largest oil importer, remains a concern plus the impact of an increase in trade tensions on global demand generally. On the supply side, President Trump plans to increase US production, while OPEC kept its quotas unchanged at its review yesterday but is still scheduled to begin normalising output from April.
  • Another uncertainty is the sanction environment with US talks with Venezuela opening the possibility of an increase in its supply, while Iran and Russia could be hit with tighter measures.
  • Today industry-based data on US crude inventories are released for last week. They rose sharply the previous week as Canadian producers have lifted flows to the US sharply ahead of possible tariffs. That trend may continue for the next month or until it is clear whether taxes will actually be imposed.
  • The Fed’s Bostic and Daly speak later and US December JOLTS job openings and orders print. France’s December budget statistics and January Spanish unemployment are also out.
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Oil prices are lower again today with WTI down 1.1% to $72.37/bbl and Brent -0.5% to $75.55/bbl, holding above initial support levels. The 30-day postponement on US tariffs for Canada and Mexico has weighed on crude during APAC trading today. Talks are ongoing regarding the 10% on imports from China scheduled from midnight NY time today. The USD index is 0.1% lower. 

  • Crude has risen on news of trade taxes but the outlook continues to worry the market. The strength of demand from China, the world’s largest oil importer, remains a concern plus the impact of an increase in trade tensions on global demand generally. On the supply side, President Trump plans to increase US production, while OPEC kept its quotas unchanged at its review yesterday but is still scheduled to begin normalising output from April.
  • Another uncertainty is the sanction environment with US talks with Venezuela opening the possibility of an increase in its supply, while Iran and Russia could be hit with tighter measures.
  • Today industry-based data on US crude inventories are released for last week. They rose sharply the previous week as Canadian producers have lifted flows to the US sharply ahead of possible tariffs. That trend may continue for the next month or until it is clear whether taxes will actually be imposed.
  • The Fed’s Bostic and Daly speak later and US December JOLTS job openings and orders print. France’s December budget statistics and January Spanish unemployment are also out.