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OIL: Crude Lower On Growth Concerns, But Less Iranian Supply In Background

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Oil prices are moderately lower today due to a large rise in US crude inventories and rising global growth concerns from an increase in protectionism. Brent is down 0.4% to $75.87/bbl after a low of $75.77. It reached a high of $76.34 early in the session. WTI is 0.3% lower at $72.45/bbl after falling to $72.36 and an earlier high of $72.97. The USD index is down 0.1%.

  • The sell off in oil has been muted following the new US administration’s policy to be tougher on Iran. Relaxed enforcement of sanctions allowed it to increase oil exports by around 1mbd over the last four years.
  • Markets are more concerned about the overall impact on global growth from increased protectionism rather than China’s retaliation on US oil and gas. China’s crude imports are already less than 5% of the US total, according to Bloomberg, and are expected to easily find alternative destinations.
  • Bloomberg reported that US crude inventories rose 5.025mn barrels last week, according to people familiar with the API data. There has been a sharp increase in flows from Canada to the US to beat the imposition of tariffs, which may continue given the delay is only 30 days. In terms of products, gasoline rose 5.426mn while distillate fell 7mn. The official EIA data are out later today.
  • Later the Fed’s Barkin, Goolsbee and Bowman appear and US January ADP employment, December trade and January services PMI/ISM print. Also the ECB’s Lane speaks and January European services/composite PMIs and euro area December PPI data are released.
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Oil prices are moderately lower today due to a large rise in US crude inventories and rising global growth concerns from an increase in protectionism. Brent is down 0.4% to $75.87/bbl after a low of $75.77. It reached a high of $76.34 early in the session. WTI is 0.3% lower at $72.45/bbl after falling to $72.36 and an earlier high of $72.97. The USD index is down 0.1%.

  • The sell off in oil has been muted following the new US administration’s policy to be tougher on Iran. Relaxed enforcement of sanctions allowed it to increase oil exports by around 1mbd over the last four years.
  • Markets are more concerned about the overall impact on global growth from increased protectionism rather than China’s retaliation on US oil and gas. China’s crude imports are already less than 5% of the US total, according to Bloomberg, and are expected to easily find alternative destinations.
  • Bloomberg reported that US crude inventories rose 5.025mn barrels last week, according to people familiar with the API data. There has been a sharp increase in flows from Canada to the US to beat the imposition of tariffs, which may continue given the delay is only 30 days. In terms of products, gasoline rose 5.426mn while distillate fell 7mn. The official EIA data are out later today.
  • Later the Fed’s Barkin, Goolsbee and Bowman appear and US January ADP employment, December trade and January services PMI/ISM print. Also the ECB’s Lane speaks and January European services/composite PMIs and euro area December PPI data are released.