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Crude Options Still Reflecting Bearish Market Risks

OIL OPTIONS

Dec24 crude options markets are reflecting the ongoing downside pressure from strong global supplies and scepticism towards OPEC+ output cuts. Brent futures have reversed earlier gains with a possible supply surplus next year offsetting the near term shipping risks in the Red Sea due to recent attacks from the Houthis in Yemen.

  • The WTI second month 25 delta call-put skew has fallen slightly back to -5.2% since reaching a recent high of around -4% on Dec 13.
  • Brent crude second month 25 delta call-put skew is however today up to -3.5% from as wide as -7.7% on Nov 23 ahead of the Feb24 contract expiry on Dec 21.
  • The longer term Dec24 crude option call-put skews have also turned more bearish again with Brent down from -5.75% on Dec 12 to -6.55% today while the WTI spread is down from -6.7% to -7.25%.
  • Aggregate crude traded volumes were below normal on Friday with Brent futures at just 0.78m and WTI futures at 0.66m. Brent options volumes were at 171k and WTI at 67k.
    • Brent FEB 24 down -0.5% at 76.18$/bbl
    • WTI JAN 24 down -0.5% at 71.04$/bbl


Source: Bloomberg

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