Crude Rallies on OPEC+ Risk and Black Sea Storm

Crude markets are edging up towards the highs from yesterday of 81.17$/bbl for front month Brent supported by OPEC+ supply risks and with disruption to loadings in the Black Sea.

• The group remains divided on production policy as Saudi Arabia is looking for other members to cut production to help support markets while quotas for Nigeria and Angola have not yet been agreed.
• Oil loadings from the Black Sea are temporarily halted due to a storm alert which is expected to last most of the week. Daily production at the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan has more than halved due to lower oil reception at the CPC oil terminal.
• The crude backwardation is also strengthening very slightly in line with the rally in front month futures.
• Crude aggregate traded volumes increased yesterday after the drop late last week amid the US holiday, but volumes remain below normal with WTI at 560k and Brent at 825k ahead of the Jan24 contract expiry on Nov 30.
• Technicals show the bear threat remains intact with key support for the Brent Jan24 contract is down at a Fibonacci retracement at 75.51$/bbl.and short term resistance is at the Nov 14 high of 83.97$/bbl.
  • Brent JAN 24 up 1.3% at 81$/bbl
  • Brent FEB 24 up 1.3% at 80.88$/bbl
  • WTI JAN 24 up 1.4% at 75.89$/bbl
  • WTI-Brent down -0.02$/bbl at -5.11$/bbl
  • Brent JAN 24-FEB 24 unchanged at 0.11$/bbl
  • Brent FEB 24-MAR 24 up 0.06$/bbl at 0.2$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 up 0.12$/bbl at 1.84$/bbl
  • WTI JAN 24-FEB 24 up 0.06$/bbl at -0.17$/bbl
  • WTI JUN 24-DEC 24 up 0.15$/bbl at 2.05$/bbl